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Welcome to this edition of JOBS THAT WORK: THE MONEY, a weekly rundown of the news important for leaders on jobs issues and people who use money to get people to work, with exclusive insights for paid readers.
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The big changes quietly inserted into Trump II’s pay-to-train funds—and the big questions remaining.
What workforce reforms could be on the table with a substantially bigger-than-expected Democratic majority in Congress?
What big workforce and jobs policy problems could end up on that majority’s radar?
Beadle Across America Speaking Calendar.
Today, I’ll be talking about closing the gap on training and employment at CECU’s Executive Summit in Palm Springs.
On November 17, I’ll be part of an awesome panel on the federal education and workforce landscape at the Education Writers Association’s Workforce Development Seminar in Elyria, Ohio.
Merch store? Merch store!
Would you like your T-shirt to be stackable and portable? Like Workforce Pell? That thing they talk about at The Mall?
Or do you need the world to know that everything—yes, everything—is in fact workforce?
Check out the additions to the JTW merch store here.
Stuff you ought to read.
America Forward and the Data Quality Campaign have a now highly relevant paper on improving outcome measurements under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, America’s most consistent source of workforce funding. The current outcome measurements favor bodies and paper over results and can often push people into well-below-the-living-wage jobs. DQC and America Forward call for an approach that not only measures the post-graduation earnings of trainees, but also their trajectories, including earnings growth.
Read this 2022 take from Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., on a WIOA reform bill that included good jobs and more services helping workers get through training. I come back to this a lot in my research and thinking because Foxx, who frets about free workforce training becoming “welfare,” opposes a lot of improvements to WIOA I’ve heard strong Republican and Democratic support for. In an election shocker, Foxx is down less than 100 votes to her Democratic opponent, as of this writing. The race may not be called for a few days.
One big trends thing.
Will workforce funding reform wash in on the big blue wave?
Let’s take a breath and ground ourselves first: even if Democrats pull out 56 seats in the Senate, as it looks like they might at the time I’m writing this, it’s highly unlikely any significant, meaningful federal workforce reforms happen before 2029 at the earliest.
The Trump White House, particularly the budget office, seems to see workforce spending in a fundamentally different way from Democrats, the Administration’s Republican allies on the Hill, and even leaders at the agencies running those funds. I wouldn’t rule out a post-midterm White House cleanout, but I can’t imagine that pivot right now, even with the President saying he wants to work with Democrats.
I also have my doubts that Democrats will be able to avoid devoting massive chunks of the next two years to reckoning with what’s happened in the first two years of Trump II. It’s an understatement to say that a great many eyebrow-raising things have been unexamined in Washington. Dems are going to take a look under those rocks, mainly because they’re rattling in ways that gave Republicans significant heartburn over the last year. What they find—and the potential roping-in of 2028 Republican presidential hopefuls—may diminish Democrats’ desire to prioritize “get stuff done” policymaking over oversight.
But… I do think there will be an effort at trying to work together. I suspect initial movement will be around healthcare—Obamacare subsidies and defusing the politically unpopular effects of some new Medicaid requirements come to mind—but workforce remains the place where bipartisanship seems to thrive because both sides’ answers are mostly the same. And there are areas where I could see 56 Senate Democrats being easier to work with because they might be more OK with spending money and trying things outside the ken of Republican orthodoxy.
Below, I get into where change seems likelier, which options might be on the table, and what to watch.
Introducing Fair Game from Vanity Fair
Join Mark Guiducci for a series of in-depth and far-reaching conversations with the most interesting characters from the worlds of Hollywood, Politics, Style, Silicon Valley, and beyond. It's all Fair Game.
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